Merrill Lynch non farm prospects and foreign exchange trading strategies-reshacker

Merrill Lynch: prospective foreign exchange trading strategy and non Huitong network February 2nd hearing on Friday (February 5th) U.S. payrolls data released, the payrolls data material "unlikely" to push the Fed’s interest rate rises, although payrolls beautiful may make the Fed rate hike is expected to heat up, but it is unlikely push the Fed rate hike pace, so this week are less likely to boost the dollar; since the last fed FOMC meeting statement can be found, the Fed interest rate decision factors gradually began to focus on the inflation problem, and the problem of the global financial market turmoil. Of course, the most critical impact on the dollar this week is the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Nonfarm Outlook: U.S. employment growth in January 2016 may slow down, non agricultural employment population increased by 170 thousand, while 2015 in the last quarter of the United States, the average monthly employment growth of 284 thousand people. Because the weather is very awesome, especially in the last 12 months, boosted by strong employment data. The model of Merrill Lynch suggests that there will be some level of decline in the next month, and even worse after two months. In addition, although the storm hit the east coast of the United States will not affect the employment data, because this occurred in January after the "non farm" survey week, however, may have an impact on the employment data in February. Through some signs, we may find some weakness in the US employment data, such as a slight upward trend in the number of jobless claims in the United States. However, the World Federation of large enterprises has a slight downward trend in the labor market. From all sectors, the mining industry will continue to lay off workers because of falling oil prices and stagnant manufacturing. In the fourth quarter of 2015, a substantial increase in the construction industry is extremely sensitive to weather conditions, so the United States will be released this week, the risk of reducing the risk of non-agricultural employment is extremely high. In addition, the possibility of employment growth in service industry is still very high. At the same time, the U.S. government is expected to increase employment by 5000, which means that private sector employment growth will be 165 thousand. Merrill Lynch expects the U.S. unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5%, while the average hourly wage rise of 0.3%, there is the possibility of rising, because there was no increase in December last year. The base effect reversed in December and January, which was more favorable for December, because it grew by 2.5% in December, even though it grew by 0.3% in January, and we would see a slowdown of 2.2%. Foreign exchange trading strategy: $292 thousand in last month’s employment report point to continue to rebound, at the same time this week in the employment report approaching "asymmetric risk", especially in the market expected U.S. payrolls increased by 170 thousand under the circumstances. Non farm payrolls data brought the biggest surprise in 2012, with the dollar selling at one percent yen, which has not happened since April 2014. As pointed out, this will mean that the market will question the Fed’s ability to raise interest rates 4 times a year

美银美林:非农前瞻以及外汇交易策略   汇通网2月2日讯——本周五(2月5日)美国将公布非农就业数据,本次非农就业数据料“不太可能”推动美联储的加息进程,虽然靓丽的非农就业数据或许会令美联储加息预期升温,但不太可能推动美联储的加息步伐,因而本周美元受提振的可能性较小;因为从上次美联储FOMC会议声明中可以发现,美联储的加息决定因素逐渐开始关注通货膨胀问题、以及全球金融市场动荡问题。当然,本周对美元短期影响最为关键的仍然是美国的非农就业报告。   非农前瞻:   美国2016年1月就业增长可能会出现放缓,料非农就业人口增加17万,而2015最后一季度美国平均每月就业增长28.4万人次。因天气非常给力,特别是在去年12月份,强劲的提振了就业数据。美银美林的模型表明,在接下来一个月中通常会出现一定程度回落,在两个月过后回落幅度甚至会更大。   此外,尽管袭击美国东海岸的暴风雪不会对此次就业数据产生影响,因为这发生在1月非农“调查周”之后,然而,可能会对2月的就业数据产生影响。通过一些迹象,我们会发现美国就业数据或许会出现一些疲软态势,例如美国初请失业金人数出现小幅上涨的态势,然而世界大型企业联合会劳动力市场出现小幅下降趋势。   从各部门来看,由于石油价格下跌,以及制造业停滞不前,矿业将会继续进行裁员。而在2015年第四季度出现大幅增长的建筑业对天气状况却极为敏感,因而美国本周将公布的非农就业数据大减的风险极高。   另外,服务业就业增长的可能性仍然极高。同时预期美国政府部门就业将增加5000,这也意味着私人部门就业增长量将是16.5万。   美银美林预计美国失业率将保持在5.0%不变,与此同时,平均时薪上涨0.3%,存在上涨可能性,因去年12月份并没有出现增长。12月与1月的基数效应出现逆转,对于12月这是较为有利的,因为12月同比增长2.5%,即使1月增长0.3%,我们也将看到增速放缓2.2%。   外汇交易策略:   美元在上月29.2万非农就业报告公布点位处无法继续进行反弹,同时在本周非农就业报告公布临近之际出现“不对称性风险”,尤其是在市场预期美国非农就业人数增加17万以下的情况下。非农就业数据带来了2012年来的最大惊喜,美元兑日元抛售量达百分之一,这是自2014年4月以来未曾发生过的。正如指出的那样,这将意味着市场将会质疑美联储“年内加息4次的”的能力,尤其是在“中国经济增长放缓以及大宗商品价格低靡”在投资者脑海中根深蒂固的情况下。   尽管6个月就业增长平均线高于22.9万水平,这虽然似乎足以支撑美联储进一步加息的想法,但是即使更为积极的就业增长也无法平息投资者对美国经济增长的担忧。   因而,市场预计美元走势有限,然而即使离开增长趋势的疲弱就业数据高于20万,也可能会施压市场的风险情绪。根据对非农超预期后的影响的回归分析,或许应该做空美元兑避险货币,如欧元、日元。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: