China Futures palm consumption off-season is difficult to continue to rise-mine_清翼

China Futures: palm consumption off-season is difficult to rise continuously clients view the latest market a market review with El Nino curtain call, the gradual recovery of production in Indonesia, palm oil inventory from the tight gradually improved, from the end of November 2015 palm oil prices gradually come to an end. Palm oil 1701 rose to 5632, as of September 2, 2016, closing at 5432, down by 3.5%. Figure 1: palm oil trend of two in the second, the latter is expected to increase the supply of palm oil originating from Africa, after the introduction of Southeast Asia. At present, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has surpassed Africa to become the world’s largest palm oil producing areas. Indonesia, Malaysia and Nigeria are the world’s top three producers of palm oil. The monthly output data of MPOB according to the latest July Malaysia palm oil production was 1 million 586 thousand tons, an increase of 3.5% compared to 1 million 533 thousand tons in June; the horse palm oil exports to 1 million 384 thousand tons, compared with 1 million 141 thousand tons in June increased by 21.3%; the end of July Malaysia palm oil (including crude palm oil and palm oil processing) inventory 1 million 771 thousand tons, compared with at the end of June, 1 million 775 thousand tons in 0.2% decreased slightly. Figure 2: Malaysia palm oil production, export volume and inventory data source: Wind palm growth has a strong cyclical, the annual output in March rose gradually, in October to reach the annual peak, then entered the production stage. Currently there are two views of the market: first, after the extinction of El Nino, palm oil production into the recovery period, the latter will gradually increase production. Another view is that there is a certain degree of influence on the growth of El Ni o, usually in the El Nino occurred after about half a year after the recession, there will be a significant increase in palm oil yields. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the later data of palm oil production, especially the gap between actual production and expected. If the yield is less than expected, is conducive to support the current price of palm oil, if yields are expected to meet or exceed expectations, palm oil prices or downward pressure. Three, La Nina for palm oil since 1959, the world experienced 8 obvious La Nina and 12 obvious nino. For the purposes of this article, the La Nina phenomenon obviously refers to the index of NOAA Nino ocean below the normal level of -1 C, El Nino phenomenon refers to higher than normal levels of +1 C. The risk of the recent El Nino La Nina formation is very high, from the previous three times higher than normal levels of the peak temperature of 2 DEG C or above the El Nino phenomenon, they have become the La Nina phenomenon within two years, and there is a (1972 – 1973) was formed in 6 months after the La Nina phenomenon. The World Meteorological Agency expects the probability of this winter La Nina is 50 to 75%. La Nina, palm oil producing areas to bring rain, will help to improve the yield of palm oil, but may cause the eastern Pacific La Nina weather is extremely dry, thus affecting soybean yield in america. .相关的主题文章: